A military intervention in Iran that leads to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz transforms a long‑recognized chokepoint into a global shockpoint for crude, products and LNG. Between 20% of global oil and gas flows and one‑fifth of LNG trade are directly exposed to this single waterway, and even with alternative routes, the system cannot fully replace Gulf exports in the short term.

India has successfully shipped its first fuel cargo to Europe since the European Union's ban on petroleum products derived from Russian crude took effect on January 21, 2026. Reliance Industries, India's largest refiner, partially offloaded a jet fuel shipment at Italy's Fiumicino port, signaling potential continuity in trade flows despite heightened sanctions. This development comes as global markets watch closely for disruptions in refined product supplies.