The year 2026 finds the global energy system at a crossroads defined by geopolitical fragmentation, accelerating decarbonization, and persistent market volatility. Major shocks of the early 2020s—most notably the post‑pandemic demand rebound, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the ongoing restructuring of global trade flows—have fundamentally altered the set of assumptions that governed energy markets for decades.

Fossil fuels are no longer optional in the near term, yet their long-term dominance is increasingly questioned; biofuels and clean fuels are emerging as strategic bridges; and the energy transition’s contours are reshaping investment flows, infrastructure priorities, and risk management frameworks for energy and commodity traders.

Over the past five years, biofuels have continued to play a relevant role in Europe’s energy transition. Although often overshadowed by the rapid growth of electrification and renewable sources such as solar and wind power, biofuels remain essential in sectors like transport. Between 2020 and 2025, their consumption in the European Union reflected both the progress achieved and the tensions inherent in a transforming energy system.

The easing of the rules gives the hydrocarbon sector additional breathing space to adapt in an orderly way to the energy transition. By preserving a role for liquid fuels and transitional technologies, the EU creates room for innovation in e-fuels, advanced biofuels and lower-carbon industrial processes. Rather than a setback, the adjustment could offer the sector an opportunity to redefine its place in an increasingly decarbonised economy.

This is the full session video of the 21st edition of Energy Prospectives, that took place on November 13, 2025, at the Madrid Campus of IESE Business School. On this occasion, the series of high-level conversations between Naturgy Foundation and IESE included the participation of Jennifer M. Granholm, former Secretary of the US Department of Energy, and Martin Wolf, Deputy Editor and Economics Columnist at the Financial Times.

2022–2024 period depicts a fuel system in transition: structurally stable in aggregate yet increasingly differentiated across fuel families; anchored in diesel and conventional hydrocarbons, yet showing clear signals of diversification driven by tourism, mobility recovery, industrial cycles and emerging electrification. The trends observed here will shape the strategic and operational context for Spain’s energy, mobility and retail‑fuel sectors as the country moves deeper int

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